Managing Expectations “Mr. Unrealistic Hopes, meet Ms. Unmet Goals.” Somewhere there’s a survey showing that Millennials (b: 1981-1996) who have never experienced a stock market correction (a decline of 10% or more), let alone a bear market (decline of 20% or more) have convinced themselves that the average growth of a diversified basket of large…
Many of the same barriers to entry that are used to choose promising stocks can also be applied to help select auspicious apartment buildings. The elements are the same-but-different in the way that middle C is the same note whether played on the oboe or the cello, but the sound is not the same. The…
Continued from Part 7 . . . The widow’s advantage was that she saw “when” not as a fixed point in the future but as a trend line. “Over time,” she thought, “the line will go up. This investment will compound better than the available alternatives”. While she seldom bought individual companies anymore, sometimes she…
Continued from Part 6 . . . Assuming Greater Risk What follows are additional examples of some of the techniques the Bond Geeks use to goose their returns. For clarity, the examples below will use hypothetical data and do not adjust for taxes, inflation, or other trifles that might obscure the larger point.
Continued from Part 85 . . . With all of this, why buy bonds? Proper diversification between asset classes enhances portfolio growth because, as someone once said, “When one asset loses, another gains”. That only happens when there is an imperfect correlation between assets. Bonds are the classic asset used to offset potential losses in…
Continued from Part 04 . . . Standard Deviation (“How sure am I to get it?”) The standard deviation (SD) straddles the mean (the “average”), with half the SD on one side and the other half on the opposite side.
Continued from Part 3 . . . The Horse One SD is defined as the range about the average return containing 68% of the data points, with half the data points being beneath the average return and the other half being above. Relative to any given asset, those two figures will reveal (a) how much…
Continued from Part 2 . . . Diversified Coin Flip – Time goes by. Uncle Fred offers to divide your retirement account into two equal parts (Part A and Part B) and conduct a separate coin toss for each half. Whether heads or tails, the results of each coin toss for Part A will be…
Continued from Part 01 . . . One of the things lenders are looking for is liquidity. How much cash-equivalency does the borrower have? Something always comes up. Does the borrower have enough liquidity to get through it? Cash equivalents include things like savings and checking accounts, retirement funds, cash value of life insurance policies,…
Continued from Part 80 . . . Determining the Mean The mean is the statistical determination of “average”. The mean of 10+10+30 is 16.67. That is also the average. Both words refer to the same result, but with a small difference. Generally, “average” is used to imply a WAG (Wild Alcoholic Guess), while “mean” suggests…